Mathematical Modelling of Varicella Spread in Slovakia.

AIM Varicella is a highly contagious disease. In Slovakia, 15,000-30,000 cases are reported annually. However, vaccination against varicella is not widely used in Slovakia. The aim of this paper is to predict the influence of vaccination administrated in different ages on the disease occurrence in different age groups. METHODS Deterministic, age-stratified SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model with stable population was used for prediction of varicella spread in Slovakia. RESULTS Vaccination of a group designated as 0 influences the proportion of susceptible and infected persons in all age groups, vaccination of 10 years old ones affects only the proportion of susceptible and infected individuals older than 10 years. CONCLUSION The increase of vaccination coverage should have a positive impact on the incidence of varicella in Slovakia. In case of vaccination coverage of 0 group in the range of 30-75%, it is necessary to pay attention to the protection of older children and adults.